Advanced Tools for pro-Active Management of Impacts and Risks Induced by Convective Weather, Heavy Rain and Flash floods in Europe

ended

Hazards induced by convective storms and heavy rains (e.g. floods) become disasters when and where they interact with more exposed and vulnerable societal systems, e.g., human life and activities, assets, infrastructure, policies (GAR, UNISDR 2019). Recent progress in seamless probabilistic multi-source hazard forecasting induced by heavy rainfall (e.g., floods) has made possible to produce predictions from the nowcast (several minutes) to short-medium ranges (5 days), enabling consistent decision making at both emergency response and planning level (UCPM-2017-PP-AG/SMUFF). However, Civil Protection agencies still face multiple challenges hampering their active decisions, including high false alarm rate, absence of multi-hazard forecasts (heavy rainfall, flood, lightning, wind gusts, hail) including their simultaneous risk assessment, and difficulty in translating hazards forecast in impact-based decisions. This project aims to address those three main challenges using innovative, state-of-the-art science, and integration of developed products in the existing systems (EFAS and SMUFF platforms) to support pro-active emergency management at different scales. This will be achieved by (i) improving the existing products and tools with enhanced impact assessment and warning capacity, and (ii) delivering them through operational platforms and new web services, for effective integration in the existing CP systems. TAMIR products and tools will be demonstrated through case study evaluation and real-time demonstration in regional Civil Protection Agency systems to evaluate their interest for decision making. There are four beneficiaries in the project: ECMWF, UPC and Kympe, together with the Applicant FMI. Additionally, there are five stakeholders from three countries: three CP operators, one national water authority and one company.