AnalysinG of fossil-ENergy dependence in agriculture to increase RESilience against input price fluctuations

ongoing

The recent variations in the price of fossil fuels and mineral fertilisers in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine threaten the incomes of primary producers and affordability of food for consumers. This threat will remain, as the pathway towards fossil fuel independence and related investments in less fossil-fuel-intensive technologies in the EU agricultural sector will take time. All this shows that there is an urgent need to design realistic, sustainable pathways for supporting the energy transition of the European agricultural sector and improving the income of primary producers. AgEnRes designs sustainable pathways for policy making to reduce direct and indirect dependence of farmers and the agricultural sector as a whole on fossil fuels and fertilisers, and increase the resilience to volatile energy prices, taking into account farmers’ behaviour and the synergies and trade-offs between European economic and environmental objectives at micro- and macro-level. Our approach consists of three components supported by outreach activities, which involve stakeholders and the general public throughout the project's lifespan. The first component develops a conceptual and data framework to identify policy targets and measures, promising technologies, and data and model requirements. Component one results among others in an EU wide database on energy use and mitigation potentials at different scales. The second component focuses on evidence of the past and present energy dependence of the European agricultural sector and preferred solutions. The third component builds on the first two and incorporates them into a set of foresight models at farm, regional, and market levels to evaluate the impacts of innovations and policy measures and targets at different scales. Ultimately, AgEnRes develops an innovative toolbox that will decrease the energy dependence and strengthen the resilience of the European agricultural sector.