Assess Vulnerability of Park Ecosystems to Climate Change- APIS

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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES This Cooperative Agreement P17AC01063 (Agreement) is entered into by the U.S. Department of the Interior, National Park Service (NPS), and Michigan Technological University (MTU) (Recipient). Apostle Islands National Lakeshore (APIS) is one of the few archipelagos in Lake Superior, the largest freshwater body in the world. Sandstones deposited about 600 million years ago form the foundation for several rare features such as clay bluffs, rock ledges, coastal wetlands, and sandscapes (sandspits, cuspate forelands, tombolos). A double tombolo on Stockton Island supports a globally critically imperiled Great Lakes Barrens feature. Rare communities include boreal, krummholz, and old growth forests that support hemlock, yellow birch, northern white cedar, and Canada yew, a species nearly extirpated on the mainland. Numerous state endangered (5), threatened (13), and special concern (26) plant species are also present. These numerous features and species are character-defining for the park and, as such, are highly significant. The park’s marine context suggests that some of its natural communities, features, and species face unique potential impacts from climate change. Changes in local climate are not only evident but dramatic – Lake Superior is “one of the fastest-warming lakes on the planet” (MPR, 2016) of 235 lakes studied (O’Reilly et al, 2015), at 2ºF/decade – “three times the global average” (MPR, 2016). The lake’s temperature has increased twice as fast as the surrounding air (Austin and Coleman, 2007) and the resultant change in the water-air temperature gradient has increased wind speeds almost 5% per decade since 1985 (Desai et al. 2009). These changes in both mean conditions and disturbance regimes threaten the park’s highly exposed terrestrial natural communities and features in part because of the naturally fragmented landscape – the park’s 21 islands include 160 miles of shoreline. Lake Superior also represents a potential (but not completely understood) barrier to warming-driven species immigration from the south, with important implications for natural communities as some historically important species decline due to changing conditions. While various work has been completed recently including community level vulnerability assessments (Wisconsin DNR) and the 2015 APIS scenario planning effort (NPS), this knowledge generated has not been synthesized and integrated. In addition, broad-scale vulnerability assessments have been completed in the Midwest (Janowiak, 2014) but not at the detailed resolution needed to inform park-level management planning and decision making specific to these island resources, issues, and threats. The objectives of this Agreement are to understand the climate change vulnerabilities of key terrestrial natural plant communities, features, and species, incorporate this information into on-the-ground management, and increase education about impacts and adaptation of park managers, staff, and visitors to promote behavior change regarding this issue. We will accomplish these actions through a vulnerability assessment, and at least one adaptation demonstration project, and several interpretive outreach and education activities. This collaborative interagency effort will deepen understanding of resource vulnerability and facilitate adaptation, enhance APIS climate change interpretation to a diverse audience, and promote behavior change relative to this critical issue. Information gained from this project will ultimately support updates to resource management strategies and plans. STATEMENT OF WORK RECIPIENT AGREES TO: 1. Summarize available baseline information on these ecosystems as they exist in the park, information from 2015 scenario planning workshop, and relevant information on observed climate change trends and future projections for APIS. 2. Help identify and recruit an expert panel of subject matter experts to participate in the workshop and contribute necessary expertise to the project. 3. Prepare for and complete a pre-workshop webinar and expert panel workshop to draw conclusions about vulnerability and confidence within context of divergent plausible climate change scenarios, and also to identify key uncertainties. 4. Follow-up research, writing, and review with the team of expert panelists, complete draft and final reports. 5. Work with park staff and partners to complete the Adaptation Workbook to identify and complete an adaptation demonstration project. NATIONAL PARK SERVICE AGREES TO: 1. Provide relevant park reports and data including GIS shapefiles. 2. Assist in identification of expert panel members and coordination of workshop. 3. Review draft report and make comments. 6. Participate in development of the adaptation demonstration project.

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