Assessing Europe's forest adaptive capacity to wildfires from a socio-ecological perspective

forthcoming

The frequency and severity of wildfires in Europe are expected to increase as climate change intensifies, threatening essential ecosystem services provided by forests. Even regions historically not prone to wildfires, such as northern Europe, are now at risk. A critical knowledge gap exists regarding the ability of forests to adapt to wildfires (i.e., maintaining or adjusting their properties to preserve these services). Previous research has identified indicators to enhance forest adaptive capacity in Europe, but the focus on wildfires has been limited, increasing the risk of maladaptive practices. Given the ecological and socioeconomic dimensions intertwined in Europe’s forests, an integrated socio-ecological approach is essential. However, this approach has not been fully incorporated into the EU Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change, the Green Deal, or the New Forest Strategy for 2030. TOADAPT is an interdisciplinary project aiming to assess Europe’s forest adaptive capacity to wildfires through a socio-ecological lens. The project will (1) identify key forest properties and indicators for wildfire adaptation; (2) build metrics to describe how these indicators enhance adaptive capacity; and (3) quantify adaptive capacity across Europe, identifying hotspots and coldspots for guiding wildfire prevention, conservation, and management. By conducting a systematic literature review, establishing adaptation criteria, a stakeholder questionnaire, and using publicly available EU data, TOADAPT will deliver the first pan-European spatial assessment of forest adaptive capacity to wildfires. This assessment will serve as a foundational model for addressing other disturbances, such as windthrows and bark beetle infestations, aiding practitioners and policymakers in identifying priority areas for sustainable forest management and conservation. Ultimately, TOADAPT will produce valuable scientific insights to inform national, European, and global strategic forestry actions.