Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System - Phase 1

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This project delivered the Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System (ASEFS), which uses basic techniques to cover all the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) required forecasting timeframes for managing the National Electricity Market (NEM), which range from five minutes to two years.Key resultsIn spite of the Solar Flagships plans and commitments, large-scale solar farms (> 30 MW) were only installed towards the end of the ASEFS project. This externality was very difficult to anticipate. It affected the outcome of the project only to the extent that the ASEFS operational system could not be tested on large-scale solar farms during the duration of the ASEFS project.An unexpected rapid increase in the uptake of rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) has created a growing problem for the balancing of supply and demand: forecast errors have already been experienced in regions like South Australia or South East Queensland, and these may increasingly contribute to severe power quality (frequency) issues.

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