Changing for the Better: Escaping Negative Equilibria in State-Citizen Relations

forthcoming

The character of state-citizen interactions shapes social stability and economic growth, making it critical to social scientists. Sometimes these interactions appear in the form of vicious cycles, in which poor state performance reinforces negative population attitudes and vice versa. Specifically, citizens who have unfavourable views of the state due to low public service quality are more likely to elect parties that limit the state’s resources, which fortifies its poor performance. We may think of this situation as a “negative equilibrium”. Yet other regions have positive equilibria, in which effective states correspond to favourable citizen attitudes. This raises a critical question: Which factors allow regions to escape negative equilibria by shifting toward more positive population attitudes and more effective state institutions? EQUILIBRIUM makes a ground-breaking contribution to our understanding of state-citizen equilibria by investigating the potential for change at the individual and regional levels. My goal is not only to examine equilibrium robustness, but also to assess if separate equilibria exist for different population groups. The project will further provide significant methodological innovation by developing new measures for equilibrium coherence and fragmentation—which I hypothesize shape the potential for change—and introducing a first-of-its-kind sequential multicomponent design that integrates observational data, public opinion surveys, and inquiries to bureaucracies. Empirically, the project will break new ground through the collection of data across five European countries and the United States, allowing for cross- and within-case comparison. Furthermore, I intend to pool survey experiments with natural experiments. This project will not only markedly improve our understanding of social equilibria, but its findings will be of direct relevance to policymakers. By rigorously assessing equilibrium durability, it will reveal paths for reform.