Climate Change and Species Ranges - Southwest USA

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Project Background Warming climates affect biodiversity by changing the abundance and the spatial distribution of species. These changes occur as animals either track moving habitats, or fail to track them and disappear from parts of their existing range. Overall, some species will be successful in adapting to climate change, while others will not. Currently, the rates and magnitudes of changes in habitat distribution in response to climate change, and the possible existence of barriers to subsequent species movement, are either unknown or predictable only at very coarse scales. This complicates efforts of wildlife professionals to plan and act, and therefore reduces the likelihood of successful species conservation efforts in the future. This project seeks to provide information that facilitates managing for projected changes in biodiversity at scales appropriate to support planning within federal, state and private conservation organizations. The project focuses on the southwestern United States and northern Mexico, areas expected to experience relatively large climatic changes. Previous work models and determines vegetation changes across this landscape. We seek to use these data in order to predict changes in the distribution of various faunal species (especially those of current conservation concern). Products should provide information that evaluates the species most prone to changing climates, identifies how much area and biodiversity is affected, and where problem areas lie. Results will assist the Fish and Wildlife Service and other management agencies to anticipate and plan for biodiversity shifts within and across protected landscapes. The approach should be relatively simple and transportable to other environments, enabling a science-driven, decision making tool for mapping, modeling and predicting the status and fate of biodiversity elsewhere. Deliverables 1) Maps of present range of faunal species inhabiting the southwestern ecosystems such as: Chihuahuan desert, Colorado Plateau shrubland, Rio Grande riparian area, and Prairie Playa grasslands. Maps will be based on current habitat and any other relevant biotic and abiotic parameters dictating each species’ likelihood of presence. 2) Tools for assessing fragmentation and their effect on species’ survival probabilities. 3) Based on climate change predictions translated into shifts in ecological systems (provided by other project members): A) Map sequences describing the predicted shifting range of faunal species. B) Analyses of species’ expected change in occupancy as a result of changes in potential range. C) Translation of B into risk of extinction at various timescales D) Synthesis of results across species to determine which habitats and geographical areas have the most vulnerable fauna, and approximately when problems are likely to occur (under different climate change scenarios).

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