Containment, Avalanches and Optimisation in Spreading-processes

2026-07-22

Spreading processes, such as cascading failure of technological networks, epidemic outbreak and contagion in social networks are ubiquitous and have a significant impact on the modern society. In many cases, transitions to large-scale blackouts or global pandemics occur abruptly due to tiny changes in system parameters; epidemics and social movements can spread out explosively, forming avalanche-like outbreaks in a very short period. The drastic transitions are beneficial for making global impact of boosting charity campaigns and commercial advertising but can also have catastrophic consequences when epidemics or failures spread to large part of a critical systems abruptly, without any early warning signals. Moreover, multiple cooperative of competitive spreading processes make the picture even more complex. Previous work in this area focused on the asymptotic manifestation of the process and typically ignored the interplay between specific system topology and the dynamics. Methods to monitor, identify and control drastic transitions and outbreaks in heterogeneous realistic networks are lacking. In this project, we will investigate the signs for abrupt transitions and avalanche outbreaks both macroscopically and in specific instances, to gain insight into the conditions for their onset. We will develop methods to contain (or facilitate) the outbreaks by optimal deployment of resources, such as applying vaccines or distributing promotion material by employing the recently developed dynamic message passing techniques from statistical physics. We will collaborate with British Telecom to promote product marketing and service provision by using the new optimisation algorithms. This project will have significant impact on the scientific understanding of non-equilibrium spreading processes, provide algorithmic solutions for practical problems in specific instances, will support policy making decisions and offer optimal resource allocation for commercial marketing tasks.

United Kingdom (UK)

2026-02-01