Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, Chesapeake Watershed CESU

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The US Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center (NOROCK), is offering a funding opportunity to evaluate the effects of social structure on disease using a long-term data set (1995-present) for the Yellowstone National Park (YNP) wolf population. The data set will be used to create a contact network for the wolf population and simulate disease spread, with the disease modeling parameters derived by empirical data. Two mechanism of disease spread will be used: 1) Spatial distribution overlap and intensity of use, and 2) annual dispersal events. These transmission routes represent two distinct social processes of wolves: territoriality and breeding strategy. While other studies have manipulated or randomized contact rates between individuals or groups, multiple mechanisms for contact rates are rarely tested. The product of this effort will be an understanding of disease spread through the YNP wolf population and under which circumstances we can expect persistence or extinction of an infectious disease. The two diseases that will be focused on are canine distemper virus (CDV) and mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) because they are known to cause morbidity and mortality. For successful completion, we would envision at least three elements must be completed: 1) Describing and summarizing the YNP wolf social structure; 2) SIR parameter estimation; and 3) Contact network model and SIR simulations.

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