Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, North & West Alaska CESU

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The USGS Alaska Science Center seeks to provide financial assistance for research to evaluate the potential climate-driven effects of future fire regimes and shrub land/forest expansion on landscape characteristics of arctic caribou winter ranges. Wild land fires are a dominant force in determining spatial and temporal patterns within the boreal forests and adjacent tundra habitats of northern Alaska and Canada that serve as winter ranges for arctic caribou. Thus, these caribou winter ranges are likely to experience major changes from adjustments in wild land fire regimes and shrub land/forest expansion associated with predicted climate change. This research will apply downscaled climate scenarios to simulated landscapes encompassing the known winter ranges of the 4 arctic caribou herds (Western Arctic, Teshekpuk, Central Arctic, and Porcupine) to evaluate and compare potential effects of climate change on these landscapes through the end of the century. The simulation domain is broadly defined as north of the Yukon River to the northern foothills of the Brooks Range from the Seward Peninsula to northwestern Canada and landscape modeling will be conducted at 1 km2 resolution. The winter range of each herd will be assessed to evaluate potential trends in the geographic extent of forest and tundra stands that are of sufficient age to support forage lichens utilized by caribou in winter. Climate warming is occurring at unprecedented and alarming rates in Alaska. Large investments have been made in research to predict how climate will change in the future; however, these predictions occur at global scales and are without sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to provide inferences on how habitats and species will vary in response to changes in climate. The research solicited here will apply fine scale climate model predictions to simulated landscapes indicative of current conditions to evaluate the potential extent and variability in ecological responses to climate change that can be expected. This information is crucial for developing appropriate management strategies that adapt to and mitigate the pervasive ecological effects of climate warming.

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