Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, Pacific Northwest CESU

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The USGS Western Fisheries Research Center seeks to provide financial assistance for research in the development of down-scaled climate projection models that generate future temperature, precipitation and riverine inflow patterns the coastal watersheds of Willapa Bay, WA; Netarts Bay, OR; Yaquina Bay, OR; Coos Bay, OR; and the Coquille River, OR at a higher temporal and spatial scale and quantify sources and magnitudes of uncertainties associated with these projections. The research will strive to generate high resolution «2 km, monthly data sets of future (21st century) air temperature, precipitation, coastal upwelling and riverine inflow patterns for coastal watersheds in WA and OR. The down-scaled projection models will also provide a robust understanding of the sources and magnitudes of uncertainties and variability associated in the temperature, precipitation, upwelling and riverine inflow projections. Climate warming and sea-level rise are occurring in estuaries on the Pacific Coast. Large investments have been made in research to predict how climate will change in the future; however, these predictions occur at global scales and are without sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to provide inferences on how habitats and species will vary in response to changes in climate. The research solicited here will generate finer scale climate model predictions that will advance the capabilities of resource managers to address regional scale issues of climate change impacts on fish and wildlife and their habitats in WA and OR estuaries, and make significant contributions in quantifying sources of uncertainties associated with downscaling methodologies and natural variability of the climate system. Downscaled projections of air temperature, precipitation, coastal upwelling and riverine inflow will be generated for each of the watersheds for at least 3 emissions scenarios encompassing the “low”, “medium” and “high” range making use of ensemble regional modeling simulations.

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