Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, Rocky Mountain CESU

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The US Geological Survey is offering a funding opportunity to fund the study of the potential cascading effects of a large Bay Area earthquake, particularly an M 7.0 rupture of the northern and southern segments of the Hayward Fault. In 2014 and 2015, SAFRR will explore these questions through the HayWired disaster scenario. HayWired will build on past studies of a Hayward Fault earthquake and past scenario development procedures in several ways. It will explore how tools of decision analysis such as influence diagrams and Bayesian network analysis can be used for risk analysis, disaster planning, response and recovery. A system-of-systems approach will be used to quantify damage and recovery of interdependent physical lifelines. HayWired will look forward decades to examine the implications of modern building code philosophy for the viability of a metropolis. As with each prior MHDP/SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) scenario, the USGS is partnering with a variety of agencies to explore the most important implications of an urban earthquake for the digital economy and opportunities to better prepare them and reduce their vulnerability.

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