Cooperative Ecosystems Studies Unit on Climate Change Research

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This financial assistance opportunity is being issued under a Cooperative Ecosystems Studies Unit (CESU) program. CESUs are partnerships that provide research technical assistance and education. This announcement is notification of intent to award CESU agreement to the University of Alaska Fairbanks. This project will identify the key processes that contribute to landscape instability and archaeological impacts through multidisciplinary field and literature-based studies. At risk portions of the park will be targeted for archeological site inventories and evaluations. The resulting information will be used to develop a model that will allow managers to predict where impacts are likely to occur, efficiently target inventory and assessment efforts, and plan and prioritize data recovery or other mitigation measures. The project entails three major components. During the first phase researchers will create a model of landscape change/stability across the park based on a synthesis of the scientific literature in relevant fields such geomorphology, soil science, botany and hydrology and use of existing soils, vegetation and geomorphological GIS data. The model will employ GIS to delineate geographic units across the park and assign a relative stability measure to them. The stability map will be overlaid with a map of archaeological potential to identify and prioritize areas of the park that are most at-risk from processes of landscape change and that are most likely to contain archaeological sites. In the second phase of the project researchers will conduct an intensive field survey of these at-risk and high potential zones. Field studies will then serve to identify and systematically document archeological sites and collect information necessary to evaluate their significance according to National Register criteria. For the third component of the project researchers will synthesize field data, evaluate and refine the risk model, and report results. Evaluation and validation of the model will take place after each field season, with a final synthesis and reporting after the third and final field season. Tasks, Organization, and Schedule The first phase of this project will have these main objectives: a) review the scientific literature concerning climate change, permafrost, and thermokarst geomorphology and write it up as a technical brief; b) as part of the above review, interview other scientists currently engaged in research on permafrost and climate change in northern Alaska; c) design a detailed field-study plan; d) complete a ca. 2-week reconnaissance field trip in Gates of the Arctic to gain firsthand familiarity of thermokarst landscapes and identify locations for potential follow-up studies related to the long term history of thermokarst activity. To be completed by September 30, 2012. The second projected phase is to conduct an integrated field- and laboratory- based analyses involving mapping of thermokarst features in relation to contemporary climatic gradients, occurrence of massive ground-ice deposits, aspect, altitude, and geological substrate, its age, and its carbon content. Lake cores will be analyzed for their record of prehistoric episodes of thermokarsting and carbon release. To be completed by September 30, 2013. The final projected phase is to write up results for publication in scientific journals as well as in technical reports to the National Park Service that are suitable for inclusion on public web pages. To be completed by September 30, 2014.

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