DEEP-sea MARine protected areas as climate shelters for the conservation of Vulnerable marine Ecosystems facing periLS

forthcoming

In the face of emerging and pronounced global environmental change, identifying adaptive measures to prevent the irreversible marine biodiversity loss and associated ecosystem services is increasingly urgent. Marine Protected Areas (MPA) and Spatial Closures to Fishing (SCF) are key tools for preserving fragile benthic biodiversity hotspots in the deep-sea, particularly Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VME). However, MPA and SCF have been created without considering that VME distribution will likely change in both depth and latitudinal range due to climate change (CC), limiting effective long-term protection. DEEPMARVELS aims to predict VME distribution under present-day and future CC scenarios to inform adaptive management strategies. By integrating VMEs presence data from underwater imagery with local-scale bathymetric and oceanographic datasets into Species Distributions Model, DEEPMARVELS will provide a comprehensive understanding of how changes in the large-scale circulation patterns in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, driven by CC, will affect the composition and distribution of VMEs. The project focuses on 3 small-scale studies across a broad range of environmental variability in the Northern Hemisphere to assess how VMEs shift spatially and in depth in terms of foundation species and density. Models built under 2 future simulated CC scenarios will identify potential climate refugia, where projected conditions will remain similar to those of the at-present reference period, offering critical insights for future spatial biodiversity management. New methodological guidelines will be developed and presented to policy-makers establishing a design that can be replicated in other MPAs and characterized by a conceptual shift from static to dynamic climate-smart management measures, to ensure the success of the EU network of MPAs. DEEPMARVELS will greatly enhance my skills and expertise in VME dynamics, a blue-ocean niche with high scientific growth potential.