Determining Natural Flows and Hydrologic Alterations in the Delaware River

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This is not a request for application, this is just an announcement that NPS has entered into a task agreement with SUNY for their work with Determining Natural Flows and Hydrologic Alterations in the Delaware River. The Cooperator Will: 1. Coordinate with USGS WaterSMART group and acquire the WATER (Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources) model and data inputs. 2. Prepare future climate data for the WATER model runs of climate change conditions. 3. Obtain the future climate data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). 4. Apply the WATER model with 1980-2011 weather to simulate feasible impacts of land use change on unregulated flows for the East Branch, West Branch, and main stem Callicoon watershed flows, at the same gaged sites listed above. 5. Assemble input data and parameters representing a feasible range of values. 6. Conduct a WATER model sensitivity analysis to examine how flows change with changes in the feasible range of input data and parameter values. 7. Use the WATER model to simulate the 2041-2070 NARCCAP predicted future climate by adding the delta-temperature and delta-precipitation to the 1980-2011 weather record. 8. Simulate in the WATER model each of the three distinct land use scenarios with the future climate record and transform the WATER model runoff estimate into unregulated hydrographs. 9. Produce a progress report for the NPS summarizing WATER model output and analysis from Steps 1 and 2 on land use and climate change. 10. Work with NPS personnel at this stage to incorporate important feedback and adjust the project as needed. 2. Analyze the WATER model flow estimates for the three watersheds and three land use scenarios to quantify how unregulated flow changes with land use and with NARCCAP forecast climate change. 3. Prepare Draft Final Report. 4. Prepare Final Report.

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