Ecological repercussions of future changes of marine climate extremes at the eastern boundary of the South Atlantic

forthcoming

The southeastern Atlantic hosts the Angola Benguela Upwelling System that supports important fisheries for Angola, Namibia, and South Africa. Every few years this region experiences extreme warm and cold events known as Benguela Niños and Niñas, hereafter Benguela variability. These events have great socio-economic importance for the countries of Southern Africa due to their drastic effects on nutrients and oxygen content along the continental shelf, and thus, the marine ecosystem. However, the impact of climate change on Benguela variability and its consequences for the marine ecosystem and economically relevant fish stocks have not been addressed so far. This is because current Earth system models have large errors in the Angola Benguela area that introduce large uncertainties in future climate projections of Benguela variability. EcoCLimEx seeks to address these limitations by applying a new method, namely the emergent constraint analysis, to reduce uncertainties in climate change projections, but also by quantifying the response of local marine biogeochemistry and ecosystem to future changes in the variability. This will facilitate the quantification of future changes in economically relevant fish stocks in this region. EcoCLimEx will be conducted at Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, under the supervision of leading experts in climate dynamics, marine biogeochemistry and fishery. This unique synergy, in addition to the researcher’s own expertise in observational physical oceanography and Benguela variability, will facilitate a mutually beneficial, two-way transfer of knowledge. Collaborations with relevant stakeholders in Angola and Namibia will ensure the full exploitation of EcoCLimEx’s results.