Enhancing Sustainability: Financing for the Rogun Hydropower Project

Proposed

The Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) is a large project under construction located on the Vaksh river about 110km East-Northeast of Dushanbe in Tajikistan and, when completed, will be the most upstream power plant of total 6 HPPS on the Vakhsh River. It will have an installed capacity of 3,780 MW, a 335-meter-high dam, 13.3 km3 reservoir and expected annual generation of 14,400 GWh. The Rogun HPP was designed in the 1970s and after several start-and-stop cycles the project implementation was resumed in 2008 with financing from the Government of Tajikistan. The pace of construction has been impacted by the availability of financial resources and exposes the project to significant risks.The Rogun HPP will be the largest HPP in the region and has the potential to generate a multitude of benefits for Tajikistan and the broader Central Asia region. It can play an important role for Tajikistan's economy by providing reliable green electricity to meet growing demand at affordable cost, eliminating load shedding during winter months when supply cannot meet demand. In winter 2023-2024 50-70% of customers only had electricity for 6 to 10 hours daily. With the large reservoir it will be able to provide balancing services for the electricity network. The existing Vaksh river HPP cascade has been designed to withstand floods with a 10,000-year return period only. Today's best practice is to design large dams to withstand floods estimated on the probable maximum flood (PMF) concept. Such a PMF event would end disastrously if the existing HPPs are not upgraded on the cascade. The large reservoir in combination with the operating regime of the Rogun HPP will be able to protect all downstream powerplants from such a disastrous PMF event.At a regional level, the project is expected to export 70 percent of its total generation, providing a significant source of export revenue to Tajikistan and contributing to accelerated GDP growth. This can have positive impacts on the social, education and healthcare sector due to increased availability of public resources.