How Affective Polarization Shapes Trajectories of Nonviolent Resistance

forthcoming

This project explores how rising affective polarization shapes the trajectories of nonviolent resistance campaigns in contexts of democratic decline, and develops evidence-based strategies for promoting democracy from below even in polarized landscapes. Across the globe, civilians are rallying for political change, taking to the streets at unprecedented numbers to resist anti-democratic government actions. Yet as mobilization has skyrocketed, its effectiveness globally has plummeted. To explain this paradox, POLRES theorizes and empirically investigates the role of affective polarization, arguing that polarization acts as a double-edged sword: while it increases mobilization into contentious action, it reduces its ability to effectively achieve political change. Building on these findings, a second goal of POLRES is to identify and empirically assess strategies to address this structural bind. POLRES proposes a multi-method comparative design to advance its objectives. The first work package analyzes global trends and then conducts in-depth case studies using original qualitative and experimental data to assess relationships between polarization, mobilization, and campaign outcomes. The second work package examines how polarization shapes leader rhetoric regarding the protests, and then explores the impact of such rhetoric on mobilization and countermobilization. The third work package shifts from understanding present problems to mapping future pathways, experimentally assessing how different resistance tactics and frames shape campaign trajectories. By combining an original theoretical framework with rigorous and innovative empirical analysis, POLRES will shape academic discourse on the present and future of nonviolent resistance and inform public debates around effective avenues for grassroots opposition to democratic backsliding and autocratization.