Improved CarbOn cycle represeNtation through multi-sCale models and Earth obseRvation for Terrestrial ecOsystems

2026-07-22

Earth system models (ESM) show diverging estimates of ecosystem carbon (C) uptake which drives persistent uncertainty about future climate and limits the realization of policy mitigation goals. The CONCERTO project aims to strengthen the European research ecosystem by creating an innovative scientific collaborative framework that enhances our understanding, monitoring, and modelling of the terrestrial cycle (CC), and leads to reduced uncertainty and ESM convergence. This framework has three main elements: the exploitation of novel Earth Observation (EO) data, the innovation of process models fed by these data, and Data Assimilation (DA) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques. The consortium includes European experts and institutes active in these areas. CONCERTO will advance the representation of land cover, leaf area index (LAI) and management intensity through new maps of high resolution with layers relevant for the CC. The new management map will enhance the creation of a new biomass production map. Further, CONCERTO will prepare for the ingestion of FLEX data in land surface models (LSM) through DA, and exploit Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI HCHO indicative of biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. As step towards moving away from prior (static) parameterizations, the novel P model will be used to ingest these new data sources. This will enhance understanding of ecosystems responses to climate extremes, fires, and vegetation recovery from them, and the parameterization of LSMs included in ESMs. Novel representations of the underrepresented processes of lateral carbon fluxes through outgassing of CO2 from rivers will be developed. Dedicated seasonal and climate experiments will demonstrate how improved representation of land surface processes benefit the accuracy and trustworthiness of global Earth System simulation. This will lead to better predictability of the influence of land management on the CC and underpin avenues towards carbon neutrality

Italy

2026-03-01