Improving Translation Models for Predicting Energy Yields

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To reduce the investment risk for large-scale photovoltaic power plants, CSIRO and its partners investigated the relationship between the manufacturer’s power rating for solar panels and the energy the panels generate over time.Key resultsThe project has demonstrated that careful measurements of four key variables (solar irradiance, module temperature, solar spectrum and solar angle) allows the output to be mathematically corrected back to the standard reference conditions used to nameplate the modules in the factory, provided the sky is clear. The project highlighted the difficulty in accurately predicting PV output during cloudy periods, or for cloudy climates.CSIRO found that by correcting the output of a PV system back to standard reference conditions you can compare the performance of the system with the rated performance of the installed modules, thus measuring the quality of the system design as well as the health of the system.CSIRO now have a framework for predicting the impact of solar spectral variations for sites across Australia.The project partners demonstrated that, with the right measurements, PV system output can be mathematically corrected back to the same standard reference conditions used to nameplate the modules in the factory. This means it is now possible to: (1) Compare the performance of the system with the rated performance of the installed modules, thus measuring the quality of the system design; (2) rapidly anticipate the system output during operation on the electricity grid; and (3) rapidly detect system faults during operation.The project highlighted the difficulty in accurately predicting PV output during cloudy periods, or for cloudy climates.Further details of the project outcomes and next steps is available in the report below. A copy of the full project report is available on request.

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