Ionospheric Climate: development of the Global Reference Ionosphere

forthcoming

The ionosphere, a layer of plasma in the Earth’s upper atmosphere, has traditionally been modelled by the International Standards Organization (ISO)-recognized International Reference Ionosphere (IRI); however, this model is made up of several sub-models, many of which have not been updated since the 50s and 70s. Since the creation of those models, our understanding of the ionosphere has evolved considerably, more diverse observations have become available, and many of the drivers, upon which these models rely, are no longer available, forcing the use of stopgap drivers whose temporary application has become more than just temporary. Here we propose to redevelop the IRI using novel empirical methods that can make use of nonlinear and indirect measurements that could not be incorporated in the IRI’s present form. We will, furthermore, include a parameterization of the climate change impacts on the ionosphere, which are now expected to have considerable impacts on the future structure of the ionosphere, and will avoid the explicit dependence of the model on driving indices that are no longer being updated. Using this model, we will here also assess the impacts of lower atmospheric forcing and climate change on the ionosphere on a global scale and characterize the implications of these results for radio and navigation systems that propagate signals through the ionospheric medium. As a member of the IRI Working Group, the PI is well positioned to ensure that the model developed here will have a clear pathway to impact. To further ensure take-up of the model, an advisory committee, made up of leading members of the IRI Working Group, ionospheric lower atmospheric coupling, and ionospheric instrument experts, has been assembled and has agreed to support the project. Furthermore, the developed model will be made Open Source and accessible in multiple coding languages.