Island plant radiations as models to understand adaptive evolution and predict responses to future climate change: an integrative and multiscale approach in Asteraceae

forthcoming

Biodiversity is disappearing at an unprecedented high pace in human history, with climate change being one of the main drivers of this loss. However, there are still major gaps in our understanding of how species evolve and how they may respond to climate change, making it difficult to take effective conservation action to halt this biodiversity loss. Oceanic islands - those that have never been connected to continental landmasses - are considered biodiversity hotspots, harbouring a unique biota as a result of explosive diversification events in which multiple species arise from a single ancestor (radiations). These radiations usually occur within a short period of time due to the rapid adaptation of species to new island environments (adaptive radiations). In the AsterAdapt project, two island plant radiations will be studied to learn about the adaptation process behind high species diversification and to use this knowledge to predict the impact of climate change on oceanic island plants. Specifically, it aims to assess the extent to which the specific environmental conditions of the species have determined the evolution of species traits and their genetic differentiation. These environment-phenotype-genotype associations, together with the result of an experiment simulating an extreme drought event, will be projected into future climatic conditions to predict plant responses to climate change. Using a multidisciplinary and multiscale approach and integrating different data sources, AsterAdapt will answer apt research questions in evolutionary ecology and island biology, while contributing to addressing global priorities regarding the halt of biodiversity loss and the mitigation of the effects of climate change. The development of this project will foster my research independence and maturity, providing a pathway towards establishing myself as a group leader in the field of plant ecology and evolution.