National Social Safety Net Program-Scale Up

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Nigeria has notably high levels of poverty and vulnerability. Predictions indicate that the ongoing global economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to a worsening of these levels. The latest official data released by the National Bureau ofStatistics (NBS) show that around 4 in 10 Nigerians (82.9 million people) were living below the national poverty line in 2018/19. Moreover, with forecasted contraction of economy by around 4% in 2020, the poverty headcount rate is estimated to increase from 40.1 % in 2019 to 44% in 2022. This is due to a combination of the COVID-19 crisis and high levels of inflation (16. % in January 2021) with rise in food prices accounting for 63% rise in inflation. This means close to a 100 million Nigerians (about 20 million HHs) could fall below the poverty line by 2022, absent any government measures.The Government of Nigeria (GoN) is considering further expansion of its National Social Safety Net Program (NASSP)- P151488 to provide cash transfers support to the existing and new poor and vulnerable populations to mitigate the short term impact of the current and future shocks including COVID-19 pandemic and recent surge in inflation. The proposed NASSP Scale Up (NASSP SU) will complement the government plan by providing financial resources and technical support for the delivery of temporary cash transfer support to the population affected by shocks, to protect the livelihoods of the existing chronically poor households as well as by strengthening the shock responsive national social protection system.The levels of social protection in Nigeria, both in terms of financing and coverage, has been very low. Apart from low coverage, the performance of the government social safety net programs is variable is also low. The limited existing social protection programs in the country also remains fragmented. Significant and persistent gender gaps exist in Nigeria, including in access to social protection services. There has been recent progress which shows the government’s commitment towards providing stronger social protection to its citizens. The government is in the process of scaling up social protection in response to COVID-19. The establishment of the RRR and the launch of the COVID-CT required innovations on several fronts. Phase II of the project intends to expand and build upon the activities conducted through the NASSP. The World Bank has been a key partner in the government’s effort to expand and strengthen the social protection programs and systems, particularly through its support to different national programs.The overall objective of the NASSP SU is to expand coverage of shock responsive safety net support among the poor and vulnerable and strengthen the national safety net delivery system. Gender and citizen engagement are important dimension of the results to be achieved by the project. These will be monitored through the outcome indicators as well as intermediate indicators looking at specific aspects of gender and citizen engagement.The project builds on the NASSP to provide strengthened social assistance support to Nigerian citizens and will support the following components:Component 1. Economic Shock Responsive Cash Transfer (ESR-CT). US$ 600 million; This component will provide temporary cash transfer to eligible beneficiaries in response to the current economic shocks affecting the country. The component has two subcomponents; i) Subcomponent 1.1. Rural ESR-CT to eligible beneficiaries in the NSR, ii) Subcomponent 1.2. Urban ESR-CT to eligible beneficiaries through the expansion of the RRR.Component 2. This component has been dropped. Component 3. Delivery System Strengthening and Program management. US$ 53 million. Component 3 will expand and strengthen the social assistance/safety nets delivery systems through increased integration and use of digital technologies at various stages of the delivery chain and also provide project management support. The Component will support supports two subcomponents; I) Subcomponent 3.1. Expansion and strengthening of the safety nets delivery systems through increased integration and the use of digital technologies, I) Subcomponent 3.2. Project management support.In addition to the three-components discussed above, the project will also support: a) citizen engagement and social accountability, b) gender and social inclusion, an c) climate co-benefit, The primary beneficiaries of the project will be the cash transfer beneficiaries. In addition to cash transfer beneficiaries, the project will improve the delivery systems for social assistance programs – both current and future.The proposed project is aligned with the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for the Federal Republic of Nigeria FY 21 – FY 25 (World Bank Report #153873-NG). The CPF has four strategic Pillars: (i) strengthening the foundations of the public sector; (ii) investing in human capital; (iii) promoting jobs and economic transformation and diversification; and (iv) enhancing resilience. The project will contribute to most of the pillars of the CPF. Most directly, the expansion of the CT programs contributes towards increasing the coverage and effectiveness of social assistance, a core objective under Pillar 2. It also contributes to other core objectives of improving investments in human capital under Pillar 2. In addition, the strengthening of social assistance delivery system will strengthen the foundations of the public sector (Pillar 1); the productive inclusion support provided under the project promotes jobs (Pillar 3); and the proposed interventions to mitigate the impact of shocks will enhance resilience (Pillar 4).