Next Generation Modelling of Terrestrial Carbon Cycle by assimilation of in-situ campaigns and Earth Observations

ongoing

The ability to evaluate EU's climate and sustainability targets is currently limited by challenges in monitoring ecosystem greenhouse gas (GHG) exchanges and other services in an accurate and timely manner. Important knowledge gaps concerning processes and drivers of GHG exchanges persist, that further hamper our predictive capabilities. The absence of coherent approaches to collect, interpret and integrate data on terrestrial GHG stocks and processes into predictive models limits the EU’s ability to monitor ecosystem services and thus to reach its climate ambitions, including the Paris Agreement of Climate Convention and European Green Deal. NextGenCarbon aims to develop a novel framework for advancing our understanding of the European GHG budget. To reach this goal, we will: 1) improve and enrich existing measurements on ecosystems; 2) assimilate these data into state-of-the-art modelling frameworks; 3) create seamless scenario prediction systems; and 4) provide guidance to policymakers on the magnitude, evolution of and future risks to GHG fluxes. Our exceptional multidisciplinary consortium links leading experts developing the next generation of ground and EO-driven observations, with several groups at the cutting edge of carbon cycle and land surface modelling, plus teams pushing the boundaries of data assimilation, complex system modelling, forest management and disturbance monitoring, land-use and GHG inventories, and communications. It also involves active engagement with diverse stakeholders, including landowners and managers, GHG exchange modelling community, international community related to environmental monitoring, climate policy support and GHG inventory experts, and policymakers. In doing so, NextGenCarbon will pave the way for high-accuracy and seamless estimates of national to continental and global GHG budgets from the recent past into the coming decades, making a vital contribution to EU's climate mitigation strategies.