Non-Utilitarian Perspectives on Population Policy

forthcoming

The world is undergoing a dramatic demographic transition. Fertility rates are falling almost everywhere. In many countries, birth rates are already below replacement. How should policymakers respond, if at all? This question poses a unique challenge because, in addition to standard utilitarian considerations, there are important non-utilitarian angles to consider. The goal of this project is to surface these considerations and clarify their implications for optimal fertility policy. This project will study optimal fertility policy from three non-utilitarian angles. The first is our special obligations towards our contemporaries. Instead of assuming that the goal of policy is to bring about the best outcome from an impartial perspective, I will consider an alternative framework in which policy makers are bound to prioritize the interests of their contemporaries. This means that, even if the planner can bring about a future that is both populous and prosperous, he may choose not to do so if it would be too costly to current people. The second perspective is reproductive autonomy. If we accept the principle that people have the right to make their own fertility choices, then any government interference in this decision is potentially problematic. This has the potential to significantly limit the permissible policy options. The third perspective is the intrinsic value of human achievements. Because raising children is costly, aggressive pronatalist policies may force us to divert resources from other valuable activities, such as the advancement of science or the preservation of our cultural heritage. This project will incorporate these considerations into an otherwise standard quantitative macroeconomic model with endogenous fertility. The outcome of this analysis will be a characterization of the optimal fertility policy, and a deeper understanding of how different normative considerations affect the desirable response to the ongoing demographic transition.