Nonproliferation Policy Education Center

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One of the greatest perils of our time is the possibility that nuclear weapons fall into the hands of unauthorized non-State actors, who might have the will to use them. This scenario is a major source of concern to many in the United States and in the international community. Such a scenario might very well materialize in circumstances under which a central government loses authority and/or control over its nuclear arsenal. In order to better understand the circumstances under which this could happen in potentially adverse countries � existing nuclear-armed countries such as Pakistan and North Korea, or even China, and future nuclear ones such as Iran and potential others (Egypt? Algeria?) � it would be useful to learn from history how State and non-State domestic actors have behaved when a nuclear-armed country is in turmoil. Much has been written on this broad theme over the past decades. But published texts are either short general essays, analyses of current concerns regarding a particular country (e.g. Pakistan), or country-specific historical overviews. No comprehensive, in-depth, country-by-country comparative study has ever been conducted in this regard; and even less has been attempted in terms of lessons from history for ensuring future control of nuclear arsenals and complexes.

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