Predicting and Explaining Development Effectiveness

preparation

The general objective of this Technical Cooperation (TC) is to develop predictive and causal inference models to understand and enhance the effectiveness of IDB operations. The specific objectives are: (i) to build a predictive system capable of dynamically identifying operations with a high likelihood of ineffectiveness at closure, as measured by PCRs and OVE validations, and (ii) to evaluate the causal impact of key instruments from the Development Effectiveness Framework (DEF)—specifically, the Development Effectiveness Matrix (DEM) and the Progress Monitoring Report (PMR)—on project performance. This initiative build upon previous analytical work, including studies conducted by OVE (2024), Alvarez et al (2021), and Corral et al (2022).