Predicting the effects of extreme climate events on avian demographics: the role of National Wildlife Refuges in mitigating climate change

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This is a notice of intent to award a single source cooperative agreement to the University of Wisconsin - Madison without competition under justification 505DM 2.14.B.2 and 4. Competition for the award is not practical as this is a continuation of a project where the University of Wisconsin - Madison and FWS received a large, multi-year grant from NASA beginning in 2012 and ending in 2016. Protected areas are critical for biodiversity conservation, but their ability to safeguard biodiversity is potentially compromised by changing land cover, intensifying land use in the areas around them and by climate change and extreme weather as it affects the suitable climate space surrounding wildlife and the habitats upon which they depend. Our previous work has shown that different species of birds respond differently to extreme weather and that managers should examine predicted changes at regional scales to better understand the potential outcomes of change. Extreme weather events and their timing is of particular concern because they may render protected areas unsuitable for some species of wildlife. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) will be substantially involved in the-project under this funding opportunity. In particular, the Service will be responsible for the following: Over-all project management; co-analysis of climate and wildlife data; communication with field stations; synthesizing results from a NWRS perspective; and co-author on all resulting publications and payment of page charges.

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