Predicting the Future of Island Biodiversity: Integrating Traits to Decipher Species Turnover Dynamics

2026-07-22

Global change is altering vegetation, with climate zones shifting poleward and species distributions changing. Rising sea levels, land-use change, and invasive species further modify natural vegetation, leading to the reassembly of native communities. However, the rates and patterns of community changes across different vegetation types, along with their consequences for biodiversity, remain unclear. This proposal explores the effects of global change on coastal islands and mainland habitat fragments using resampled vegetation data. Islands, which support unique biodiversity and are particularly threatened by rising sea levels and invasive species, serve as models for understanding the effects of fragmentation on the mainland. The overarching aims of this proposal are to: (i) advance island biogeography by characterizing plant ecological strategies on islands through functional traits, focusing on immigration and extinction dynamics; (ii) describing potential futures under global warming; (iii) compare assemblage dynamics on islands with those in fragmented mainland habitats; and (iv) synthesise findings towards effective conservation strategies for coastal island vegetation. The strengths of this proposal include its focus on islands as simplified systems, the use of a unique dataset with resurveyed vegetation, and the synthesis of findings from both island and mainland habitats. Understanding differences between island and mainland assemblages will be key to predicting the future of island ecosystems.

Germany

2026-02-01