Proa Analytics Solar Forecasts

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The Innovative Optimally Combined Solar Forecasts project recognises that power output of a solar farm fluctuates due to cloud motion over the site.These fluctuations impact the power system, so improved forecasts will help to integrate solar generation into the grid and reduce the cost of solar generation. This forecasting project will forecast the generation of three large scale solar farms using a new solar forecasting system developed by Australian company Proa Analytics. Every five minutes, the Proa Forecasting System (PFS) will produce an updated generation forecast for the next 5-minute period for each solar farm, as well as longer forecasts up to several days ahead. Proa’s forecasts use an innovative combination of four different technologies: skycams, satellites, live data and numerical simulations.Key resultsA combination of forecasting technologies is required to provide the best forecasting performance by harnessing the advantages of each technology across a variety of weather patterns. Skycams provide a significant benefit in reducing forecasting errors in high variability conditions, provided that the instruments are properly maintained and operated. -Self-forecasts present a solid Net Present Value (NPV), with benefits significantly outweighing their cost, which allows for their wide implementation across solar and wind farms in the NEM.

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