Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy

ended

The aim of QuantMig is to produce comprehensive, multi-perspective and robust quantitative migration scenarios to support various areas of European migration policy. The project will advance the methodology of scenario generation whilst being firmly grounded in cutting-edge developments in conceptualising, explaining, estimating and forecasting migration. QuantMig will further the understanding of conceptual foundations of European migration flows and their key drivers in origin, destination and transit countries. Particular focus will be on mobility of third-country nationals and decision-making of migrants. The scenarios will be based on a bespoke set of statistical estimates derived from a distinctive and comprehensive set of harmonised data on migration and its drivers. Rigorous and innovative methods will be developed and applied to creating interactive simulation models, describing scenario uncertainty, and providing early warnings. The unique features of QuantMig include building a comprehensive knowledge base on migration and its drivers, far beyond the state of the art. The strong quantitative slant of the project will improve migration data and related analytical methods, offering an innovative assessment of their quality and uncertainty, in line with the current European policy priorities. The project remains fully relevant to the work programme, addressing all specific areas of the call. Put together by a unique consortium of leading European institutions with excellence in demography and migration, in continuous dialogue with key users and stakeholders, QuantMig will deliver a range of directly applicable tools for policy support. The dissemination and policy activities will integrate the stakeholder perspective throughout the project. The project outputs: open data and models, accessible interactive tools and visualisations, and a range of simulations for migration policy and planning, will ensure significant impact and a lasting legacy of the project.