REFUGEES, POVERTY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

ended

Globally, nearly one in every 100 humans is now either a refugee or internally displaced. Over 95% of the refugee population is concentrated in the developing world, 60% of which are in fragile states. The 36 most fragile countries in the world account for 2.6% of global GDP but host 71% of the world’s population of forcibly displaced people. This stands in contrast to the 4% of world refugees currently hosted by the US or the 5% of refugees seeking asylum in Europe. The number of refugees in the developing world is only expected to increase with worsening conflict in several countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This trend poses dramatic and immediate economic challenges to low-income, fragile states in the developing world, while increasing the threat of economic and political instability in the developed world due to growing immigration and demand for asylum. Recent events have showcased that managing refugee flows may be a defining challenge of our time. At the heart of this challenge is the (lack of) economic integration of refugees into the country of first asylum in the short-run, and into their country of origin in the long-run. The main objectives of REFUGEDEV are to: 1) quantify labor market effects of refugees on host communities in the developing world; 2) examine how these effects respond to exogenous changes in the distribution of skill, income and assets of refugees and host communities; 3) measure the impact of refugee integration on attracting subsequent waves of refugees and economic migrants; 4) identify the long-term impact of forced displacement on the socioeconomic outcomes of repatriated refugees once conflict subsides. REFUGEDEV will generate new datasets from archival, administrative and primary survey data on the economic trajectories of refugees and of host communities; and it will combine experimental and quasi-experimental empirical strategies to identify causal relationships between forced displacement, poverty and growth.