Robust control of the space debris population to define optimal policies and an economic revenue model for the sustainable development of space activities

ongoing

Space assets offer services of social and economic benefit for the humankind and enable monitoring the condition of our planet. As recognised by the UN and space agencies, space missions for Earth observation, geolocation, telecommunication, science, and technology contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. As our lives become more and more interconnected thanks to satellites and space is more easily accessible, Space can be seen as the extension of our planet biosphere. As such, long-term sustainability of space activities will be possible only if a change of behaviour is put in place by space faring nations. The growth of space debris is following an exponential trend, which is typical of many other environmental stressors of Earth system trends. Immediate actions are needed to mitigate the increasing risk of collisions and enable the future use of Space as a common. In GREEN SPECIES project I will devise a new interdisciplinary framework for the modelling of the space debris population, and the forecast of its evolution. A probabilistic space debris model will be devised for the overall space debris environment. All uncertainties of physical, economic, and political nature will be modelled, and the forecast of future launch traffic and compliance to guidelines included via economic approaches and evidence theory. As unique feature, the project will incorporate the management of the debris environment through a robust time-delayed controller, applied to the space debris model, described as a complex dynamical system. Ideal feedback control actions will be transformed into policies and guidelines, via quantitative indicators, assessing both the environmental impact and the social and economic benefit of space missions. Policies will act as the actuator of a real controlled system. GREEN SPECIES will propose the first economic model for a revenue system for Sustainable Space by leveraging approaches from the management of the global climate.