SEAClim: European SEAs CLIMate impact prediction through regional models

ongoing

SEACLIM aims to provide refined information on future decadal-to-multidecadal changes of the marine environment and related impacts at regional to local scales, fundamental for climate policy and decision making. SEACLIM will leverage on regional ocean models of the Copernicus Marine Service to enable for the first time the pre-operational prediction of decadal and multi-decadal changes of the marine environment (ocean circulation, waves, sea-ice, biogeochemistry) through coordinated downscaling of the latest global climate models reference simulations (CMIP6). SEACLIM will also advance the understanding of physical and ecosystem processes to further develop regional ocean models. New regional ocean indicators will be developed to assess the ocean state and health over coming decades. SEACLIM R&I will be performed over three European seas: the northeastern Atlantic, northwest shelf including the North Sea and the Arctic Ocean, but will be replicable to other regional seas. SEACLIM regional ocean predictions, projections and ocean climate indicators will be integrated in the European Digital Twin of the Ocean, providing it with climate ‘what-if scenarios’. SEACLIM new datasets will be benchmarked in coastal and ocean climate services for targeted policy and decision makers to support climate mitigation and adaptation actions and the blue economy. SEACLIM will co-design its R&I and exchange knowledge with key stakeholders and will bridge the gap between the operational oceanography and climate science research communities, ocean modelling and programmatic frameworks (e.g., Copernicus, WCRP CMIP, CORDEX, CLIVAR, RiFS, WMO, GOOS). A coordinated framework for regional ocean decadal to multi-decadal predictions and their evaluation will be co-developed to build capacity of the regional ocean climate community to produce coordinated simulations and pave the way for the development of a new service line on projected changes of the marine environment in Copernicus Marine.