The Geopoliticization of Trade Policy

ongoing

Currently, we witness the “geopoliticization” of trade, namely the linking of national security concerns to trade policy. While this geopoliticization is related to the U.S.-China trade war and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it has become a broad phenomenon affecting most countries worldwide. Much existing research sees governments in the driver’s seat of this process. By contrast, I explain the domestic politics behind the geopoliticization of trade policy focusing on the interaction between the economic interests of domestic actors and national security concerns. My approach is ground-breaking because I will: 1.) develop an original theoretical argument that distinguishes between three causal pathways for the influence of domestic actors: one where the economic interests of domestic actors constrain geopoliticization, one where business actors shape trade measures in line with their economic interests, and one where business actors drive the geopoliticization of trade. 2.) collect and analyse a large amount of novel empirical evidence, including on public opinion and business associations, to test this argument. This research will cover not only the three most important trading entities (China, the EU and the U.S.) but also India, Mexico, and Turkey as examples of middle powers that have only received scant attention. 3.) innovate in terms of methodology by combining evidence on inputs into the policymaking process, the policy process, policy outputs, and policy consequences to test an explanation of politics. The project promises to have a significant impact not only on the literature on the trade-security nexus but also on work done on the political economy of trade, interest groups, public opinion, international conflict, and the political economy of emerging countries. Given that geopoliticization affects the international order, the distribution of wealth, and the likelihood of interstate conflict, the project is of high relevance for several broad debates.