The Impacts of Economic Growth and Decline on Party Behavior

ended

The economy influences which parties citizens vote for. But how do parties respond to macroeconomic conditions? Despite the theoretical and normative implications on democratic representation, existing studies have yet to provide an answer. ECONPARTY addresses this lacuna by investigating how the economy influences party behavior. It begins with this idea: parties electorally disadvantaged by the economy alter their issue profiles during elections and in legislative activities, in order to reduce voters' attention on the economy. Economic growth motivates parties to differentiate their issue profiles, while decline motivates them to do the opposite (converge). ECONPARTY will first investigate how parties differentiate or converge on three types of issues – redistribution, public services, and non-economic issues such as immigration. It will then examine the impacts of sustained growth and decline on party polarization. ECONPARTY will provide a new research agenda on the political effects of the macroeconomy, and boost methodological innovation in the fields of political economy and party competition. ECONPARTY will construct two game-theoretic models of the macroeconomy's impacts on parties' electoral and legislative strategies (models 1 and 2). The models will yield testable hypotheses. It will then utilize automated content analysis to code election manifestos and legislative bills from 1960 to 2020 in 10 democracies. Large-N statistical analyses will follow. The fellowship is crucial for my becoming a professor at a European university. Under the guidance of Prof. Johannes Lindvall, I will gain 1) new research skills in political economy and public policy, 2) scientific skills in time-series models, and 3) transferrable skills in academic publishing, grant management, and public outreach. These skills will help establish my expertise in political economy and democratic representation, and help me inform the public on the economy's potential in shaping politics.