Uncovering the Magnitude of Arctic Climate Change

ended

A key challenge in climate change science is to provide informed constraints on the magnitude of future climate change. Uncertainties associated with such predictions remain large due to the shortness of our observational records (at best 150 years) and the absence of large climate shifts therein to serve as an analogue for future change. This is especially problematic when estimating Arctic climate change because the response in the Arctic is amplified relative to the global mean, making the Arctic the most sensitive and vulnerable environment with regards to global warming. Efforts to assess the magnitude of past (e.g. pre-industrial) climate changes using climate proxies are thus crucial to further our understanding of how the Arctic system will respond to continued global warming. The proposed investigation seeks to constrain the magnitude of Arctic amplification by quantifying the influence of the carbonate ion concentration of sea water on the temperature signal recorded in the Arctic planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral (NPS). Using NPS shells collected from stratified plankton samples, I will combine established and new analytical techniques in trace element and isotope geochemistry to derive and isolate carbonate system parameters from the climate signature recorded in NPS. This approach is innovative and interdisciplinary as it takes advantage of cutting edge knowledge in proxy development without compromising on the benefit of a seasonally and spatially constraint dataset. This will provide a holistic understanding of how changing hydrological and other environmental conditions impact not only NPS lifecycle but also the geochemical signal recorded in their shell. Given the uncertainties associated with available paleoceanographic tools this will provide a major advancement in the field of paleoceanography and climate change science.