Unifying ecophysiological predictions of ectotherms to global warming

ongoing

Ongoing climate change represents a major threat to biodiversity, and scientists now face pressing concerns to forecast how ecological communities will respond to global warming in the medium- to long-term. However, the current framework to study heat tolerance rely on critical thermal limits (CTmax), which comprises a coarse metric that has been shown to be unrealistic. Not only results from CTmax are ludicrous, they do not allow for temporal forecast. Unfortunately, this is what overwhelming majority of research groups are now measuring, at an enormous waste of time and human effort. The e_WARM project proposes the ambitious umbrella objective of stablishing a unified predictive framework for the study of heat tolerance in terrestrial and aquatic ectothermic animals. For this purpose, the candidate will develop a novel comprehensive analytical toolbox to anticipate heat mortality with a unprecedented accuracy and reliability. This approach translates high-resolution temperature records from the field into realistic mortality rates of species. Importantly, the analytical routines proposed can be expanded to include the interplay of warming with other factors, such as heat waves, phenotypic plasticity or hypoxic stress. As a proof of concept, the candidate will study Drosophila species as model organisms from terrestrial, and Daphnia species (invertebrate) and Galaxias maculatus (fish) as model organisms from aquatic ecosystems, The subject of the e_WARM project is both timely and important, as more reliable predictions of the impact of global warming on populations’ resilience are urgently needed. Repercussions of this research will be immediately transmitted to the society, and they will have a big scientific, political, economic and health impact.