Unravelling FRESHwater and ocean Currents changes in the Arctic using REmote sensing

ongoing

The Arctic is warming rapidly, causing significant hydrographic changes including sea ice retreat, freshwater accumulation, and altered ocean currents. These changes intensify water stratification potentially destabilizing Earth's thermohaline circulation. Despite its key role in global climate system, the ultimate fate of Arctic freshwater remains unconstrained. Current estimates lack the resolution that remote sensing and Artificial Intelligence (AI) can provide. It is crucial to improve freshwater flux uncertainties, to better constrain future projections and understand global climate impacts. FRESH-CARE aims to transform our understanding of Arctic freshwater dynamics. It will develop innovative methodologies that leverage (radiometric, thermal, and altimetric) satellite data, AI-integrate remote sensing and in-situ information, and run model simulations to forecast freshwater transports under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. FRESH-CARE will focus on three specific objectives: (1) develop a novel AI-based methodology to characterize four-dimensional ocean currents; (2) quantify freshwater transports through the main Arctic gateways; and (3) perform simulations for future Arctic freshwater scenarios using a coupled ice–ocean model. Overall, I envision that FRESH-CARE will offer a multidisciplinary view of ocean currents and freshwater fluxes in the Arctic Ocean over three decades, from hindcast in the 2010s to forecasts into the 2040s. FRESH-CARE will provide pan-Arctic estimates of ocean currents and freshwater distribution with high spatiotemporal resolution, benefiting polar oceanographers, earth modelers, and climate scientists, as well as to the society at large. FRESH-CARE findings will enhance the understanding and assimilation of ocean freshwater in future global climate models.