Waves of Regime Transformation

forthcoming

Over the past 120 years, the number of countries affected by waves of democratization and autocratization (Waves of Regime Transformation) has been steadily rising. The current number of countries experiencing autocratization is unprecedented, highlighting the urgency in understanding: How and why do democratic and authoritarian practices spread across the globe in wave-like patterns? Project Objectives 1. Develop a conceptual and empirical framework to identify waves of regime transformation. 2. Formulate a theory explaining the driving forces behind these waves. A particular focus is on the role of Zeitgeist - the meaning of “democracy” at a particular time and place - and how it affects waves. The theory also clarifies how such waves propagate across different regions and periods. 3. Test the theory empirically, identifying the drivers behind these waves. WAVES develops a multi-level framework for studying waves of regime transformation at individual, national, regional, and global levels. It breaks new ground by using an interdisciplinary, mixed-methods approach, combining techniques from evolutionary biology, political science, and computational social sciences. WAVES builds both a conceptual and empirical framework to study the evolution of these waves, applying causal inference methods to explore their drivers. It examines how hegemonic shocks, diffusion, parallel development, and Zeitgeist shape waves of regime transformation. WAVES challenges the assumption that democracy’s meaning is stable over time and tracks the evolution of Zeitgeist using text analysis of parliamentary speeches. WAVES moves the field forward by developing a theory of regime transformation waves and creating an empirical dataset that traces these waves since 1900. By revealing when and why such waves begin, accelerate, peak, and decline, it provides policymakers with actionable insights helping them understand and respond to the current global wave of autocratization.