Economic Advisory Services

2026-11-03

Purpose and Description of Services The State Controller ’ s Office ( SCO ) is seeking a contractor to provide monthly forecasting and economic advisory services and assist SCO in response to the economy , financial changes , and budget deficits , as described herein . The Contractor shall provide quarterly comprehensive reports regarding state economic conditions to the State Controller ’ s Council of Economic Advisors , which is charged with providing the Controller current and objective economic information and analysis . The Contractor will participate in quarterly meetings anticipated to be scheduled around the Controller ’ s monthly cash report release prior to the 10th day of each month of the year . The Contractor is expected to make themselves available to the Controller on an ad - hoc basis when issues arise to provide real - time advice and guidance on emergent fiscal issues . The Contractor shall assist SCO in managing and monitoring the State of California ( State ) cash flows , refinements to previously developed forecasting models , and projection of future cash flows in the State ’ s General Fund and borrowable funds . The Contractor will provide detailed analysis of the State ’ s economic trends , focusing on key indicators such as employment , industry performance , and consumer spending . The Contractor will monitor all facets of state , federal , and global economic conditions and assess the impact of state and federal policies on the economy and offer insights across major areas such as technology , agriculture and tourism . Short - and long - term economic forecasts will be developed , highlighting potential growth opportunities and challenges . A . Description of Services The Contractor shall provide the State Controller ’ s Office ( SCO ) with monthly forecasting , subject matter expertise , and economic advisory services and will assist SCO in response to the economy , financial changes , and budget deficits , as described herein . The Contractor shall provide quarterly comprehensive reports regarding state economic conditions to the State Controller ’ s Council of Economic Advisors , which is charged with providing the Controller with current and objective economic information and evidence - based analysis . The Contractor will participate in quarterly meetings anticipated to be scheduled around the Controller ’ s monthly cash report release prior to the 10th day of each month of the year . The Contractor is expected to make themselves available to the Controller on an ad - hoc basis when issues arise to provide real - time advice and guidance on emergent fiscal issues . The Contractor shall assist SCO in managing and monitoring the State of California ( State ) cash flows , refinements to previously developed forecasting models , and projection of future cash flows in the State ’ s General Fund and borrowable funds . The Contractor will provide detailed analysis of the State ’ s economic trends , focusing on key indicators such as employment , industry performance , and consumer spending . The Contractor will monitor all facets of state , federal , and global economic conditions and assess the impact of state and federal policies on the economy and offer insights across major areas such as technology , agriculture and tourism . Short - and long - term economic forecasts will be developed , highlighting potential growth opportunities and challenges through the lens of current economic theory and empirical research . Agreement Term The term of this agreement will be for three years as deemed necessary by SCO . The rates quoted on Exhibit B , Attachment 1 , Cost Worksheet will not change as a result of any amendment to this agreement . This agreement may be terminated by SCO with 30 days ’ written notice to the Contractor . The Contractor is cautioned that no work shall begin until the Agreement has been fully executed . If work is performed prior to agreement approval , and the Contractor for any reason is not approved , all previous work performed by the Contractor is considered donated to SCO and no payment shall be made for that work . Agreement Amount The Contractor and SCO Representatives are responsible for monitoring the agreement cost to ensure it does not exceed the maximum amount of the Agreement without an executed amendment . B . Contractor ’ s Roles and Responsibilities 1 . The Contractor will respond to specific requests from SCO with respect to fiscal and economic impacts stemming from budget deficits . The Contractor will provide SCO with monthly economic and fiscal forecasts , analysis of the impact of economic changes on the State ’ s cash flows , and other related matters . 2 . Utilizing the available data , the Contractor will update and refine SCO existing forecasting models incorporating advanced econometric techniques . The Contractor shall provide technical documentation detailing the theoretical framework and econometric methodologies utilized in the refinement of these models . The Contractor shall ensure all forecasting methodologies are consistent with current peer - reviewed economic literature and provide bibliography of academic sources to support the chosen statistical approach . The Contractor will update and revise the previously identified statistical correlations between historical trends and future cash inflows and outflows , in order to allow SCO to better project likely cash balances under a variety of fiscal and economic conditions . In developing the forecasting models , the Contractor will analyze macroeconomic and budget forecasts , monthly revenue receipts , monthly economic data , Department of Finance ( DOF ) cash flow estimates , and emerging economic and fiscal issues . The Contractor will integrate relevant data and insights from each of these sources into the models in order to ensure that the models take advantage of the best available information and academic standards . 3 . The Contractor will assist staff in the maintenance and operation of the forecast modeling and reporting system for the State Accounting and Reporting Division ( SARD ), Bureau of Cash Management , focusing on cash flow scenarios , borrowable resources reports , Pooled Money Investment Board ( PMIB ) reports and monthly cash reports . Upon completion of analysis of monthly PMIB reports and monthly cash reports , the Contractor will prepare a monthly economic report of the State . 4 . The Contractor will review the DOF cash flow estimates ( including the Governor ’ s budget proposal , the May revision , and enacted Budget Act ) and provide an independent analysis to : ( a ) assess the downside risks of the DOF ’ s estimates ; ( b ) assist in the development of the sizing for a revenue anticipation note ( RAN ) or registered reimbursement warrant ( RAW ); and ( c ) identify specific days in which the State may have insufficient cash balances . The Contractor will develop and present economic risk scenarios based on information provided by SCO , utilizing historical economic impacts to the State ’ s cash flow resilience under volatile conditions , 5 . The Contractor will identify emerging economic and fiscal issues that may have a potentially significant impact on State and local finances .

California

2026-05-10