Revenue Forecasting

2026-11-03

The Contractor shall : 4 . 1 . 1 . Evaluate the effectiveness of the inclusion of various independent variables in the predictive equations for the categories of HURF and the Excise Tax . 4 . 1 . 2 . Develop a comprehensive list of risks to the revenue categories . 4 . 1 . 3 . Develop econometric models that account for the risks identified . 4 . 1 . 4 . Ensure the results of the model produce an array of probabilistic outcomes and not just a singular forecast . 4 . 1 . 5 . Ensure models developed consider one - time and ongoing changes , including but not limited to the impact of the following factors on the revenue streams of HURF and the Excise Tax in future years : the impacts of climate ; the increasing adoption of electric vehicles ( EVs ) and other alternative fuel vehicles ; population growth ; the increase in the adoption of telework ; business cycles ; public health outbreaks ; inflation ; trade policy ; shift in driving behaviors . Factors are at the discretion of the Department . 4 . 1 . 6 . Develop a process for annual forecasting using the new models . The Contractor shall : 4 . 1 . 6 . 1 . Define what information is required to perform annual updates to the models . 4 . 1 . 6 . 2 . Create procedures , sources , and roles and responsibilities for gathering the annual update information . 4 . 1 . 6 . 3 . Create templates for the annual RAP Panel session . Templates shall include but not be limited to : independent variable history and baseline forecast , RAP workshop workbook for panelists , panelist input sheets and information booklets , aggregate panelist output with comparison of current year and past year independent variable forecasts ...

Arizona

2026-03-27